Regardless, here’s a review of how each owner performed at the draft, based primarily on the current Yahoo rankings of the players selected. This isn’t a perfect system, as we’ll explain later, but it is a means to judge others, which Blog thoroughly enjoys.
The general purpose of this review is to determine value in a draft pick. Blog developed a simple formula to determine value called the Adjusted Draft Value via Current Yahoo Rankings Quotient or ADVvCYRQ for short. For typing purposes, we’ll simply call the number the players value. If a players value is a positive number, than that is good value. If it’s a negative number, than his draft position was higher than his actual performance should have warranted. Let’s use the #1 pick in the draft, Russell Martin as an example.
Papi’s Space Cadets picked Martin #1. Blog took his draft number (1), added 50 to account for the 50 players that were kept and got his Adjusted Draft Position (51). Blog then found Martin’s Yahoo Ranking at the All-Star break (88), and subtracted it from his ADP. The math reveals that Russell Martin’s value is -37. As we’ll discover, -37 is not a terrible number, but it does show in a general way that Martin has not lived up completely to his draft position. Now obviously, this doesn’t take things like position scarcity or drafting for a specific category need (steals, saves), but it does seem to accurately reflect those that are meeting/exceeding expectations based on their draft position, and those that are most certainly not. We’ll look at each team, working our way from bottom to top. Some other clarifications:
Highlighted players have been on the roster since the draft.
Top 50 is the # of players drafted who moved into the top 50 Yahoo ranking.
Top 100 is the # of players drafted who are in the top 100 Yahoo ranking.
Value Picks is the # of players who have positive value
Value over 50/100 shows the number of players with high value
Non-Value picks are any players who have negative value
Non-Value picks over 100 show players with negative value over 100.
Non-Value picks over 500 shows draft busts.
Now that Blog’s put you to sleep…
#10 – BOB’Z GIRLIE MEN (-344 average value)
Blog has a tendency to pick on BB a little, since they are firmly entrenched in last place, but these numbers clearly show that BB had the worst draft in the league, and it really wasn’t close. The average current yahoo ranking of all players drafted is 502. 502!! The average value of the players drafted is -344. That is really not good. The 9 players with values worse than -500 is a league high. Three of the 10 worst value picks in the draft show up here (Tulowitzki, Sheffield, Maybin). It could certainly be argued that Tulowitzki was a more damaging pick than Maybin, simply because he went 2nd, but we’re sticking with the numbers here. One of the top 10 value picks was JD Drew in the 13th round, but alas, he was cut right before his numbers took off. Lowell, Shields and Percival have been the only other players who have lived up to their draft position. By September, Matt Garza will probably replace Percival on that list. There were injuries (Tulo, Sheffield, Cuddyer) ineffective rookies (Maybin, Buchholz, Butler) and disappointing veterans (Vazquez, Francis, RJ). It’s been a long rookie season for BB, who hopefully will be able to snag some extra picks for 2009, because for next years draft, there’s no where to go but up.
#9 – Bounty Hunters (-254 average value)
BB at least has cut his losses with his poor value picks. Bounty Hunters, on the other hand, has more drafted player still on his roster than any other team. Pretty gutsy for the 2nd worst draft performance. (Even though Milton Bradley was drafted here, he was cut and then traded for, so he doesn’t count here). BH still has 12 of his first 14 picks, even though 7 have values worse than -100. In fact, the hunters set the mark with 17 picks with a negative value, and 12 picks with a -100 or worse mark (this tied Longball). Milton Bradley was the 3rd best value pick in the draft (164). This increased value greatly benefited the Swine Nine though, as BH had to give up a keeper (Soriano) to reacquire Bradley from Swine after cutting him in March. Injuries have hurt the value for generally dependable players (Konerko, Harang, Wang, Wainwright), but if not for the great years of Rivera and Bradley, BH might have given BB a run for their #10 money.
#8 LL Longball (-246 average value)
Longball come in 8th place, despite having the most valuable pick in the draft. Carlos Quentin was taken 3rd to last in the main draft. 198th. The 248th player accounted for, yet there he sits, ranked at #14 overall after an MVP caliber first half. Of course, since Carla was cut on 3/17 for Aaron Hill, Longball gets credit for drafting him, but no benefits from him at all. (FYI, Snot owns the top 2 value draft picks, though he didn’t pick either of them). Blog finds it fascinating that Brad Penny still has a roster spot. Yahoo says that there are 964 better players than him out there, and many of those aren’t even active! Kenny Lofton’s number could increase, if he could ever find a team to play on. In fact, there were 5 players drafted who have yet to take the field in ’08: Lofton, Josh Fields, Cameron Maybin, Kelvim Escobar and Chris Ray. Longball is still getting benefits from 3 of his value picks: Derek Lee, Michael Young and Dan Uggla. All 3 are playing keeper-level ball. But Longball’s averages are killed by the 12 non-value picks worse than -100, including 07 studs Roy Oswalt (-305) and Edgar Renteria (-552!). As a Sox fan, Blog is glad to see the old Rentawreck is back in the AL. Edgar is almost creeping into waiver-wire territory (If Longball ever believed in cutting players). And Longball’s got no love from this years Philly sleeper, Kyle Kendrick. At least he wasn’t snagged in the 1st round.
#7 Papi’s Space Cadets (-245 average value)
Selecting Russell Martin #1 over guys like Chipper Jones, Aramis Ramirez, Corey Hart or Derek Lee can be criticized, but not much. Papi could have grabbed Tulowitzki, Pence or Byrnes and been toast. Though Martin technically isn’t a value pick, he’s not far off, and in a position of scarcity. As noted above, and as you can see from some of the other numbers, a team can live with players valued at -37. His next 3 picks are even better. Had Lackey been healthy all year, all 3 would have positive value. Zimmerman has been injured, and then there are several more ok value picks, with Longoria potentially being a top 50 value guy. Two very solid picks later on stand out: Youkilis and Lowe. Lowe was cut back in May, and his ranking has only gone up in recent weeks. Youk, on the other hand, has been a steal in the 14th round. A top 35 performer taken after 189 players are off the board is always good value. Willingham was on pace early to be a value pick, but his bad back start a streak of 5 straight picks with values worse than -500. That string keeps Papi from showing up later in the rankings.
(Part 2 – to be posted tomorrow).
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